KSA Reports Conflicting Channelisation Rates in Dutch Gambling Sector
The Dutch market is growing big time, total GGR up 21.2% year on year in 2023 to €4bn. But the channelisation rate remains a topic of discussion. The KSA says 95% of players are using legal sites, but other data suggests it’s 87% and the illegal gambling problem is still not being tackled.
Channelisation Data Confusion
The KSA’s monitoring of the Dutch market shows two different channelisation rates. According to GfK data, “95% of Dutch players in H1 2024 only visited legal gambling websites” which meets and beats the 80% target.
But another method, using H2 Capital data on revenue and player spend, suggests it’s 87%. This is because “more money is wagered (and lost) on the black market than the legal market” so the channelisation rate is lower.
The KSA also said the actual rate might be even lower when including unlicensed operators. “This means that those who play illegally often spend more money. This keeps the Netherlands attractive to illegal parties, an undesirable situation.”
Market Growth 2023
Despite illegal gambling still being present the Dutch market grew in 2023. Total GGR was up 21.2%. Online casino was the main driver of growth, up 34% to €1.09bn or 27.25% of total GGR. Land based also grew but not back to pre pandemic levels.
Online gambling, especially online casinos, is the big winner in the Dutch market. Sports betting has grown since the online market opened in 2021 but still only accounts for 9% of total GGR. Most betting activity happens online not in land based venues. “Betting accounts for only 9% of the total gambling market and this drops to 7% when looking only at online revenue,” the report says.
In 2023 83% of betting revenue came from online channels, but sports betting is still a small part of the overall gambling industry.
Spending and Taxation
The average Dutch adult spent €272 in 2023 according to H2 Capital, below the EU average of €339. Per capita spending in the Netherlands is above Ireland but below Finland, France and Denmark. Taxation of gambling revenue has become a hot topic.
A planned tax increase from 30.5% to 37.8% of GGR will come into effect in 2026 which has been met with resistance from operators. The KSA said stricter regulations will widen the gap between legal and illegal operators. “The stricter we regulate, the greater that difference can become.”
KSA chairman Michel Groothuizen was both proud and cautious. “The estimated 95% [channelisation rate] was a rate to be somewhat proud of”, he said, citing the visibility of legal operators and the ban on illegal operators advertising in the country. But he also stressed the need to keep monitoring especially with the upcoming tax changes. “We use data to keep our finger on the pulse when it comes to announced measures and the increase in gambling tax,” he stated.