Next Manager in Premier League Sacked Odds

How the “Next Manager to Be Sacked” Market Works

Most bookmakers label this as “Next Premier League Manager To Leave Post”. Importantly, it includes any departure – being sacked, resigning, leaving by “mutual consent” or taking another job elsewhere. The winner is simply the first manager whose departure is officially confirmed after you place the bet.

Odds are usually quoted in fractions (for example 6/4 or 50/1) and can be converted to implied probabilities. Sites such as Oddschecker and BettingLounge aggregate prices from multiple UK bookmakers, showing who is favourite and how the percentages stack up. At the time of writing, Marco Silva and Daniel Farke sit clearly ahead of the pack, while a cluster of established coaches – from Eddie Howe to David Moyes – form the chasing group.

As always, these numbers move quickly. A single result, key injury or boardroom statement can cause sharp changes, so any snapshot is only a guide to current market sentiment, not a prediction of what will definitely happen.

Manager-by-Manager Sack Race Analysis

Below you’ll find all 20 current Premier League managers priced in the sack race market, plus the special “No manager to leave” selection. Odds are indicative only and based on current ranges from leading bookmakers and odds comparison sites.

1. Marco Silva Fulham

Marco Silva is the current favourite to be the next Premier League manager to leave his job, trading around 6/4 with several major bookmakers. Fulham’s form has been inconsistent across 2025, with defensive vulnerabilities and patchy home results raising questions about the team’s direction. The market clearly assumes that any renewed slide toward the relegation zone would place Silva under immediate scrutiny.

For sack race watchers, the key factors are Fulham’s fixture list and the club’s ownership history – the Khans have shown patience in the past, but the stakes of Premier League survival remain high. A run of poor results – especially against direct rivals – tends to shorten Silva’s already-short odds very quickly.

2. Daniel Farke Leeds United

Just behind Silva sits Daniel Farke, generally available at around 13/8, giving him an implied chance of close to 40% in some models. Leeds’ return to the Premier League has been mixed, with good spells of attacking football offset by defensive lapses and late dropped points. The market clearly reads Elland Road as a high-pressure environment, especially after the club’s recent years of promotion, relegation and rapid turnover in coaches.

Investors in this market pay close attention to Leeds’ home results and the mood in the stands. Boos, banners and post-match comments often move Farke’s price almost as much as the raw league position.

3. Eddie Howe Newcastle United

Despite his earlier success – including taking Newcastle into Europe – Eddie Howe now sits as a prominent name in the sack race, priced at around 8/1. Heavy investment in the squad has shifted expectations – mid-table form no longer counts as stability on Tyneside. Questions about defensive frailty and squad depth, especially during congested fixture periods, have also fed into the narrative that Howe could be vulnerable if results stall.

However, his odds remain significantly longer than the two favourites, reflecting that the ownership still appears broadly supportive and values continuity – at least while European qualification remains achievable.

4. Scott Parker Burnley

Scott Parker is trading at around 12/1, making him one of the top five candidates in most current price lists. Burnley’s challenge is straightforward – a relatively modest budget up against well-resourced rivals, and a style that is still bedding in against Premier League quality. The club’s board has historically valued long-term projects, but a prolonged spell in the bottom three would inevitably increase pressure.

Market sentiment around Parker tends to swing sharply based on six-game form – short bursts of wins can push him out toward the mid-pack, while losing streaks see his odds contract again.

5. David Moyes Everton

Back at Everton for a second spell, David Moyes appears in the next tier at roughly 14/1. His task is to stabilise the club after ownership changes, stadium relocation plans and consecutive relegation battles. The sack race market reflects a delicate balance. Moyes has deep credit with the fanbase and experience under pressure, but another survival dogfight could test patience.

The odds currently suggest that, while he is not among the most likely to leave next, any renewed slide toward the bottom three would quickly move him up the list.

6. Arne Slot Liverpool

Arne Slot’s price hovers around 16/1, placing the Liverpool head coach in the middle of the pack. After succeeding Jürgen Klopp, Slot has already delivered notable early results and a dynamic playing style. Expectations at Anfield, however, are uniquely high – merely qualifying for the Champions League is often regarded as a minimum requirement.

The market treats Liverpool as relatively stable, but instant pressure would follow any prolonged title challenge collapse or early exits from major competitions, which is why Slot sits above the long-shot elite coaches yet well behind the most endangered names.

7. Nuno Espírito Santo West Ham United

At around 20/1, Nuno Espírito Santo is rated as an outside contender to be next out. Recently appointed at West Ham United, Nuno inherits a squad in transition and a fanbase divided over style versus results after previous regimes. Early performances – particularly in London derbies and European fixtures – will go a long way to shaping his odds across the winter.

Because he is relatively new in the role, bookmakers currently assume a degree of patience from the board, but a run of poor away displays or relegation anxiety could quickly shorten his price.

8. Thomas Frank Tottenham Hotspur

Thomas Frank, now at Tottenham Hotspur, is generally available at 25/1 to be the next Premier League manager to leave. His reputation as a builder of projects and his strong track record at Brentford help keep his odds on the longer side. Nonetheless, Spurs’ expectations – Champions League football and at least one serious trophy push – mean that any mid-table drift will attract media speculation.

For now, the market views Frank as relatively secure, but some models still assign him a low single-digit percentage chance of being first to go, reflecting the volatility of the Spurs job in recent years.

9. Sean Dyche Nottingham Forest

Newly appointed Sean Dyche at Nottingham Forest sits around 25/1, similar to Frank and Ruben Amorim. Forest turned to Dyche for his reputation in organising struggling teams and grinding out results. Because he has only just taken charge, bookmakers assume a grace period, especially while he implements his defensive structure and evaluates the squad.

That said, Forest’s recent history of rapid managerial changes means Dyche cannot be fully discounted in the sack race conversation, particularly if results do not improve across winter.

10. Oliver Glasner Crystal Palace

Oliver Glasner is grouped among a cluster at about 33/1. His Palace side has been competitive but inconsistent, with spells of attractive attacking football offset by occasional lapses at the back. The club’s long-term model and relative comfort with mid-table finishes provide some insulation, so the market sees Glasner as a mid-range risk rather than an immediate candidate for dismissal.

If the team were to be dragged into a relegation scrap, however, his odds would likely react quickly – especially if Selhurst Park supporters begin to show visible frustration.

11. Enzo Maresca Chelsea

Enzo Maresca’s odds sit around 33/1, reflecting a blend of high expectations and recognition that Chelsea are still rebuilding. The club’s ownership has already cycled through several managers in a short timeframe, which keeps any Chelsea coach in the sack-race conversation almost by default. At the same time, the project is framed as multi-year, with heavy investment in young players and a clear stylistic identity.

The market currently assumes Maresca survives as long as Chelsea remain within reach of European qualification and show tangible signs of tactical progress.

12. Andoni Iraola Bournemouth

At about 33/1, Andoni Iraola sits in the same tier as several other mid-table coaches. Bournemouth’s board has backed his proactive, pressing style and accepted short-term volatility in exchange for a clear identity. For sack race odds, that translates into a moderate but not extreme probability of a mid-season change.

As with many clubs outside the traditional “big six”, league position relative to the relegation zone is the single biggest driver of Iraola’s price – a comfortable mid-table spot generally pushes him further out in the market.

13. Pep Guardiola Manchester City

Despite his status, Pep Guardiola is still priced up, usually at 33/1. This reflects the fact that, in theory, any manager can leave next – but in practice, bookmakers assign Guardiola a very low chance of being first. His City side continues to compete for major trophies domestically and in Europe, and there is no clear sign of internal pressure over results.

The more realistic scenario captured in this price is the possibility of Guardiola deciding to step away or take a break, rather than being sacked in the conventional sense.

14. Ruben Amorim Manchester United

New Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim trades around 25/1, broadly in line with Dyche and Frank. United’s sack-race narrative is always intense due to the club’s profile and recent history of short managerial tenures. Amorim’s progressive style and early results will heavily shape his price; a strong first season would quickly remove him from serious contention, while a poor run could see him surge up the market.

Bookmakers’ current odds suggest that, while pressure always exists at Old Trafford, the board is likely to treat his first full campaign as part of a longer-term rebuild.

15. Fabian Hürzeler Brighton & Hove Albion

Fabian Hürzeler appears at roughly 33/1, another name in the mid-range pack. Brighton’s ownership has a strong reputation for patience and data-driven decision-making, which typically keeps their managers away from the very top of sack-race lists. Hürzeler also benefits from the club’s clear recruitment model and willingness to give coaches time to implement tactical ideas.

His odds would likely shorten only if Brighton were to be pulled into an unexpected relegation battle or if there were signs of a major breakdown in dressing-room relations.

16. Unai Emery Aston Villa

Unai Emery is also priced at around 33/1, underlining that bookmakers view his position at Aston Villa as secure in the short term. Strong league performances and European qualification have reinforced his status as one of the league’s most respected tacticians. For sack-race purposes, Emery is seen as a very unlikely candidate to be first out, barring a dramatic collapse.

The current price more or less reflects the small chance of a shock resignation or a sudden downturn in results, rather than any ongoing boardroom dissatisfaction.

17. Gary O’Neil Wolverhampton Wanderers

Gary O’Neil is notably absent from the top half of most sack-race markets, generally priced at around 33/1 – 40/1 depending on the bookmaker. His work at Wolves has earned recognition for stabilising the team under financial constraints, and bookmakers currently view him as neither under acute pressure nor among the most secure managers. Instead, his odds place him in the broad middle tier – unlikely to be the first manager dismissed, but still exposed if Wolves drift into relegation danger.

Wolves’ board has shown patience in recent seasons, especially given the restrictions of Profit & Sustainability Rules, which have limited squad reinforcements. O’Neil’s tactical flexibility and strong record in difficult fixtures have also contributed to his relatively long odds. For sack-race purposes, his position will largely track Wolves’ proximity to the bottom three – a comfortable mid-table run could move him further out, while a winter slump would shorten his price quickly.

18. Keith Andrews Brentford

At 50/1, Keith Andrews is among the longest shots on the board. Brentford’s ownership structure and data-led recruitment philosophy create a relatively stable environment, and early indications suggest Andrews aligns with that approach.

While no manager is completely “safe” in the Premier League, the market assumes the club will prioritise continuity unless results become unexpectedly poor. As a result, Andrews’ odds move mostly on long-term trends rather than one-off scorelines.

19. Régis Le Bris Sunderland

Another 50/1 outsider, Régis Le Bris at Sunderland is considered unlikely to be the first Premier League manager to depart. Sunderland’s promotion and the club’s belief in Le Bris’ developmental approach underpin this price. The board appears to view him as a project coach responsible for embedding a distinct playing style and developing younger players.

Sack-race markets still monitor newly promoted clubs closely, but at present, Le Bris’ long odds signal a belief that the hierarchy will give him time, even if the team experiences predictable ups and downs.

20. Mikel Arteta Arsenal

Mikel Arteta shares the 50/1 bracket with Andrews and Le Bris. After turning Arsenal into consistent title contenders, Arteta’s position looks strong, and bookmakers assign him a very low probability of being the next manager to leave. Any departure in the short term would likely stem from a shock resignation or a major off-field rift rather than ordinary results-based pressure.

In sack-race terms, his presence on the list is largely a formality – fans tracking this market generally view him as one of the safest managers in the division.

“No Manager to Leave” – The Long-Shot Alternative

Alongside the 20 individual coaches, some bookmakers also quote a special “No manager to leave” option – effectively a bet that every Premier League manager stays in post until the end of the season. On Oddschecker, this selection has been seen around 66/1, signalling an implied probability of roughly 1.5% or lower.

Historically, Premier League seasons without a single managerial change are almost unheard of, which explains the long price. The option exists mainly as a curiosity and a way to complete the market, but for analysts it highlights just how strongly bookmakers expect at least one club to pull the trigger before the campaign ends.

The Premier League sack race odds offer an interesting lens on club politics, supporter sentiment and short-term form. They are not guarantees – they simply reflect how likely bookmakers think a departure is compared with other managers at a given moment.

Anyone following these prices should remember that they change quickly, that they can be wrong, and that sports betting carries financial risk. If you do choose to engage with betting markets, it is important to do so within strict limits and in line with responsible gambling guidelines – or to treat these odds purely as information about the ever-shifting pressures of life in a Premier League dugout.