The 2026 World Cup Won’t Repeat Qatar?

Completely Different World Cup

From the perspective of European markets, it is hard to ignore the combination of three factors that may significantly change betting dynamics. First, the late-night match times. Games scheduled after midnight may lead to a natural drop in the number of online players, especially those who are not accustomed to betting outside standard hours.

The second factor is seasonality. The tournament returns to June and July, a time when users more often spend evenings outside their homes, go on vacations, or simply shift their attention away from screens. Summer does not support regular sports consumption, and a World Cup of this scale will have to “regain” that attention.

The third difference is the lack of a boost naturally driven by the club season. In Qatar, everything aligned perfectly: the autumn rounds ended just before the tournament, fans were fully in football mode, and European leagues resumed shortly after the World Cup. Never before had a World Cup integrated so smoothly into the daily cycle of the player.

Meanwhile, in 2026 operators will have to build this rhythm from scratch, relying more heavily on promotions, pre-match offers, special bets, and segmentation.

Marcus Berry, Trading Head of Sport at Superbet

Live betting: Lower Traffic, Higher Engagement?

Operators admit that late-night hours will change the dynamics of live betting, but they do not expect a collapse. Marcus Berry, Trading Head of Sport at Superbet, views the situation optimistically and in broad terms:

“Even though many World Cup matches will take place during late-night hours in Europe, I still expect live-betting interest to remain strong. The World Cup naturally drives fans to adjust their routines, and late fixtures often attract more committed viewers who typically engage more deeply with in-play markets. Mobile-first behavior makes it easy for players to react to big moments instantly, and the tournament’s constant stream of highlights, storylines, and social chatter keeps engagement high even outside peak hours. With relevant real-time content and smart prompts, operators can turn the unusual schedule into an opportunity to sustain—and even elevate—player engagement throughout the event.”

Berry emphasizes that late-night games often attract the most dedicated fans — and from the operator’s perspective, such users generate more interactions and make wider use of expanded and in-play markets.

A similar view is shared by Ben Colley, Director of Sportsbook at FDJ United:

“In lieu of the confirmed timeslots, I think its fair to use the Club World Cup as a template, and as such we will almost certainly see less social European hours for a good number of fixtures and with this in mind, we can safely say that while late kick-off times will definitely change the shape of live betting, they won’t kill it.”

However, Colley notes a clear shift in user profiles. There will be fewer people online at night, but they will be more engaged. And it is precisely these users who will generate most of the activity:

“We expect to see fewer people online at once, but more committed ones. The fans who stay up for late games tend to be the most engaged – they know their football, they follow the tournament closely, and they usually bet more per head and interact more with live markets.”

Although live betting will remain a central element, the betting style will change. Colley predicts fewer spontaneous bets and a stronger focus on bet builders and combinations prepared earlier:

„We also think the mix of bets will shift a bit. There’ll probably be slightly fewer ‘in the moment’ bets on those matches, whilst a bit more focus on thought-through positions – for example, bet builders and daily multiples placed well earlier in the day. In terms of volume, and in particular against the backdrop of a heavier overall schedule, we would expect typical trends of much bigger action around the headline fixtures, simply with more to aim at. If a major European team or a global superstar is involved, late kick-offs will still pull strong live interest. It’s the lower-profile, late games where we expect activity to lean more towards pre-match / multibet filler. Overall, we see live betting becoming a bit more ‘focused’ from dedicated followers, in particularly the later games, but still absolutely central to how fans experience the tournament with us.”

“Live-First” Markets May Suffer The Most

Konrad Komarczuk, CEO of Fortuna Poland, is much more cautious. From the perspective of an international group, he sees how differently European markets operate. For some operators, live betting is the foundation of daily turnover:

“Markets that operate mainly in ‘live’ mode, such as Romania, will feel it the most. I myself had a problem preparing the budget for next year. The matches will take place after midnight, so it is difficult to expect players to stay up late like zombies.”

Komarczuk admits that this is not only a commercial challenge for his business, but also a strategic one. Global groups must prepare several versions of forecasts, because the differences between Poland, Romania or Czech Republic, are significant.

“From the point of view of the entire Group, this is a big challenge.”

Konrad Komarczuk, CEO of Fortuna Poland

Will This World Cup be as Good as Qatar?

The biggest problem with comparisons is that Qatar 2022 was an event almost impossible to replicate. The perfect timing, lack of alternative entertainment, very high sports consumption in the winter, and a recently completed club season created conditions never seen before in the industry. Komarczuk states directly:

“The entire industry is a bit ‘spoiled’ after the previous championships in Qatar. Back then, the tournament took place at the perfect time of year. People were not on vacation, they were at home, they had no alternative entertainment. The leagues ended just before the tournament and then quickly returned, so the players were in the system all the time. Now the situation will be completely different.”

But not everyone sees this as a reason for concern. Marcus Berry argues that despite the different conditions, 2026 may turn out even better:

“Despite the shift in timing and later kick-off windows, we’re confident that the 2026 World Cup is positioned to deliver strong — and potentially higher — levels of active players and betting volume.”

In his view, the key advantage is the expanded format and number of matches, which create new opportunities:

„Major tournaments consistently cut through seasonal patterns, and the 2026 edition offers even greater upside thanks to its expanded format with more teams, and a significantly larger number of matches, all of which create additional touchpoints for engagement. While the scheduling differs from Qatar 2022, this can actually help the event stand out in a less congested sports period for many markets, and the tournament’s extended structure allows us to activate customers continuously across a longer window. Coupled with the rapid growth of Bet Builders, player-stats markets, and in-play betting — alongside targeted promotions and mobile-led engagement strategies tailored to later match times — we see the 2026 World Cup not as a challenge but as a major opportunity to drive sustained activity and strong betting volume throughout the event.”

Ben Colley, Director of Sportsbook at FDJ United

Colley, meanwhile, notes that the tournament will be “different,” but not necessarily worse:

„Qatar 2022 was a bit of an outlier – it dropped right into the middle of a packed European season, with daily football betting habits already in place. This edition reverts to the norm; summer tournament, fewer domestic fixtures, and as is often the way with the World Cup, some less ‘sociable’ kick-off times for European audiences. Our take is that this World Cup will feel very different to Qatar, but not necessarily weaker, plus it’s a brand new format for us all.

On the plus side, the calendar is much cleaner. We don’t have the ‘distraction’ of domestic leagues in the background, so for a while the World Cup really is the only show in town. That’s great for cut-through and attention, even if some of the kick-offs fall outside the traditional evening peak for European audiences. What we expect to change more is the shape of the volume rather than the underlying demand. There will almost certainly be a drop in casual, midweek, late-night betting from Europe on neutral or lower-profile games. At the same time, we’d expect that to be offset by stronger pre-match activity, more interest in multiples, outrights and tournament / player specials, and a big concentration of turnover around matches involving the major European teams.
At two in the morning, there will simply be fewer players logged in than there were during Qatar’s schedule, but the ones who are online are likely to be highly engaged and staking more on average, so from our perspective, it’s not a worse World Cup, it’s just a different one.

In summary, while we’re not expecting a repeat of patterns seen in Qatar, we’re expecting the action to be redistributed. Fewer casual, late-night bets scattered across lower-profile matches, and more deliberate, higher-value betting clustered around the key fixtures.”

Are The 2026 World Cup Destined for a Weaker Outcome?

The new format, more than one hundred matches, summer timing, and late-night hours make the 2026 World Cup a tournament requiring a completely different approach than the edition in Qatar. However, operators agree on one thing: this will not be a weaker tournament, but one arranged differently. Instead of the broad wave of bets seen in Qatar, they expect more concentrated, more deliberate activity, more strongly based on pre-match offers.

The biggest players on the market will need to calibrate their strategies to effectively capture both the late-night matches and those played at more comfortable times. And since the “fight for the World Cup” will be fierce — as Komarczuk says:

“We will definitely fight for this World Cup. We have a high budget for June in terms of both costs and revenues.”

This edition will most likely show that the World Cup does not have to take place at the perfect time to drive strong activity. But it demands more from operators than ever before and will test the entire industry’s ability to navigate such different seasonality conditions.