UK Betting Tax Hikes Could Cost 40,000 Jobs and £3 Billion in Economic Output

EY Analysis Highlights Major Economic Risks

According to EY’s independent analysis, tax proposals backed by the Social Market Foundation (SMF) and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) would have severe consequences for the regulated gambling industry and the broader UK economy. The study estimates that higher taxes could channel £8.4 billion in bets toward unregulated operators, while wiping £3.1 billion off the sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA).

The Betting and Gaming Council reports that its members currently contribute £6.8 billion to the UK economy, generate £4 billion in tax revenue, and support over 109,000 jobs, including thousands in high-skilled technology roles across cities such as Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham, and Sunderland.

Proposed Tax Increases and Their Impact

Both the SMF and IPPR have called for significant tax hikes, with proposals to raise the Remote Gaming Duty on online games from 21% to 50%, and the General Betting Duty on sports betting from 15% to 25%. EY’s modelling found that the IPPR’s approach could result in 40,000 job losses, while the SMF proposal could eliminate 30,200 positions.

Despite claims that the measures would generate £3.2 billion in additional tax revenue, EY’s analysis suggests the short-term benefit would be closer to £1 billion. When considering reduced corporation tax, lower National Insurance contributions, and business closures, the Treasury’s net gain could fall below £500 million.

Industry Leaders Sound the Alarm

BGC Chief Executive Grainne Hurst said the report’s findings highlight the real risks posed by excessive taxation:

“It is now clear these further tax rises are a direct threat to British jobs and economic growth. The figures speak for themselves – tens of thousands of jobs lost, billions diverted to the black market, and a possible £3 billion hit to the economy.”

Hurst warned that higher taxes could lead to widespread closures of betting shops, bingo halls, and casinos, while strengthening the appeal of unregulated online operators.

“Balanced regulations and a stable tax regime guarantee a growing regulated sector,” she added. “But these proposals would achieve the absolute opposite of that and undermine the very consumer protections that keep people safe by pushing customers towards the unregulated black market, where there are no safeguards, no tax receipts, no jobs, and no support for the sports we all love.”

Black Market Concerns and Regulatory Context

The report also notes that both think tanks overlooked the UK Government’s 2023 Gambling Act Review White Paper, already projected to reduce industry revenues by around £1 billion. Moreover, while the IPPR assumes a 31% sector growth rate by 2025, EY projects a more modest 4% increase between 2023 and 2026.

Operators warn that tax increases would make regulated firms less competitive. Betfred has cautioned that higher levies could force the closure of its 1,300 betting shops, putting nearly 7,000 retail jobs at risk. Similarly, Entain CEO Stella David has expressed concern that further tax pressure could accelerate shop closures and push customers toward the black market.