Kambi’s Insight on NFL Betting Trends: The Impact of QB Injuries in 2023

As the league gears up for week 10 games, a notable pattern has emerged: an increase in low-scoring games, which could be attributed to injuries among starting quarterbacks.

Prop Betting Resilience Despite Scoring Drops

Despite the overall dip in scoring, bettors have shown a keen interest in low-risk, high-reward prop bets, particularly the ‘Player to score a touchdown’ bet. This type of prop bet remains popular even as the games have been scoring fewer points compared to previous years.

Quarterback Injuries’ Impact on Scoring

A significant factor in the lower scoring games is the injuries to key quarterbacks and the subsequent performance gap with their backups. A prime example is Zach Wilson replacing Aaron Rodgers for the New York Jets following Rodgers’ early-season achilles tear. This shift in quarterback performance has had a tangible impact on the game’s dynamics and betting patterns.

Comparing Quarterback Performances

The contrast between Aaron Rodgers and Zach Wilson is stark. Rodgers, a future first-ballot Hall of Famer, boasts an impressive career average of 255 passing yards per game, a 65.3% completion rate, and a quarterback rating of 103.6. Zach Wilson, in contrast, in his nascent career, averages 187 yards per game with a 56.6% completion rate and a quarterback rating of 72.3.

“Games have been generally lower scoring through the first half of the season, partly due to all of the backup quarterbacks we have seen so far, which has been a favourable outcome for us and our partners. However, with much of the season left to be played and some teams’ starting QBs returning, we could always see different outcomes. We are also seeing plenty of action on alternate player lines and we’ve been very pleased with the performance on them.” – said David Ball, Senior US Trader at Kambi.

Our Comment on the Article

The analysis by Kambi sheds light on the significant influence quarterback injuries have on the NFL’s betting landscape in 2023. The resilience of prop bets, despite lower overall scoring, highlights the adaptability and optimism of bettors. The stark difference in performance between seasoned quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and younger counterparts like Zach Wilson underscores the critical role quarterbacks play in not only determining the outcome of games but also shaping betting trends. This situation reflects the dynamic nature of sports betting, where player injuries and team changes can significantly alter the betting landscape, prompting bettors to adjust their strategies accordingly.